So Long Swedes?

These days those in the know in AC circles are making two lists and checking them twice, and neither has to do with Christmas.

The first list: Which teams have new boats under construction and when will they be sailing in Valencia? (and will they be entered in any or all three Acts in 2006?)

The second: Which teams will not be around in 2006?

The first list is easy. Teams that have announced that they have boats under construction, or soon will be:

• Emirates Team New Zealand
• +39 (Italy)
• Luna Rossa (Italy)
• Desafio Espanol (Spain)
• Mascalzone Latino (Italy)
• United Internet Team Germany
• BMW Oracle (U.S.)
• Alinghi (Switzerland)

Remember that Shosholoza has already built and raced the first of the two new boats (RSA-83) each team is permitted under the Cup rules. When or even if they will build a second boat has not been announced.

Our best SA sources say the above list is in the approximate order that construction began, or will begin, on the other new boats being built in time for sailing in Valencia next spring or summer.

Sail numbers have been issued up to 88. According to many press reports, 84, 85 and 86 went, respectively, to the first three teams in the list above. But no one other than Chief Measurer Ken McAlpine and the receiving teams knows at this stage who got 87 and 88. A number is issued, in sequence, soon after the CM is notified by a team that lay-up of the hull has begun. And none of the others is talking publicly, at least not so far.

An interesting aside - neither Alinghi nor Oracle have actually said they have started construction. Indeed, Oracle seem to be very open with their press releases about "entering the construction phase" and "getting ready to build" at their "purpose-built" facility near Seattle. But is it all a smoke screen and they don't really intend to start building any time soon? And even if Alinghi does build a new boat in time for the 2006 Acts, will they enter it? Or just check in with one of their old boats and keep their new boat off line next summer and keep the challengers guessing for as long as possible?

Don't forget that skirting the yachts becomes legal again from January 1st through all of next year (in fact, through March, 2007).

The second list is a little less clear, but the first helps bring it into focus. Three teams have not begun to build new boats, and have not even stated time schedules. They are on most people's second list of possible dropouts:

• China Team (duh, China)
• K-Challenge (France)
• Victory Challenge (Sweden)

K-Challenge has just announced a new but small sponsor, and it is hard to imagine the Cup these days without a French team. China Team? Everyone wants the Cup to gain a foothold in China, especially Cup sponsor Louis Vuitton, so SA expects to see them survive by hook or by crook.

Word on the waterfront in Valencia and elsewhere is that the shakiest of the three is Sweden's Victory Challenge. Crew members have cleaned up their CVs and are openly job-hunting for new rides, both inside the Cup and out. The other two? Time will tell. But it sounds like the party may be over for Victory Challenge, and their fun-loving, party-boy leader Hugo Stenbeck. No one who was at Alinghi's party in Trapani will be sorry to see him go.

12/08/05